• Big Bets are issues where the president should consider investing his power, time and prestige in major efforts that can have a transformational impact on America and the world. * Double Downs are derived from the Big Bets from last year's recommendations that the president should redouble his efforts on.
  
• Black Swans are those low-probability but high-impact events that can divert the president and his administration's higher purposes, such as dramatic negative events that he will want to take steps in advance to avoid or to mitigate their consequences.
  
• Nightmares are events that look more likely than a Black Swan and could prove particularly troublesome for U.S. interests and the global order, and for which the administration should prepare.
  
• Holds are updated policy recommendations to stay the course on approaches suggested last year.
  

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